Leading to a new record tourism in Greece breaking the barrier of 35 million arrivals by 2024. At the same time, the search for staff has become a race, for large hotels and for smaller accommodations that demand more people in the summer months.
According to the research of the National Bank, tourism in Greece is ready to gain a new year record, with such a supply of dynamic beginning of the year and the positive signs of the introduction.
In particular, tourism in Greece will have a dynamic start to 2024 (with the arrival of the 1st quarter showing an annual increase of 24%) while almost all leading indicators highlight positive signs for continuity. Specifically, the index of future demand for hotels in Greece is at a historically high level, with optimism reflected in the record net hiring for the February-April period (+98 thousand compared to +90 thousand in 2023).
At the same time, international air traffic related to the number of records in 2023
- increase in spring arrivals (in the order of 20%), improved expectations for reduced seasonality,
- increase in fixed positions during June-October (+8%), and
- strong demand from independent tourists (+14% of bookings so far).
Ethniki analysts estimate that 2024 could reach new records, with tourist arrivals of the order of 35 million (+ 7% compared to 2023) and improved revenues per tourist , thus bringing order receipts of € 22 billion (+ 10 % compared to 2023) and increasing share of the Mediterranean market. At this point, it is not worth emphasizing the wide variation around our base case scenario (mostly on the downside), due to the high geopolitical and climate uncertainty as well as the potential turmoil from the bankruptcy of FTI Touristik.
The hotels
Also, the National Bank, through field research of 200 hotels that it has done for the 2nd consecutive year, tried to diagnose the perception of businesses in the sector.
Starting with hotel expectations for the road to 2024, we note that it is largely in line with our own estimates (year-on-year sales growth of around 10%), with all key destinations expecting of stronger momentum in 2019-2023. However, we emphasize that the sector continues to face a personnel problem, with 80% of the sector saying that they face a number of vacancies equal to or greater than 2023.
Then, turning to a more medium-term basis and analyzing more deeply into the research findings, we see that:
- Greek hotels are generally aware of the current sustainability challenges and appear to be aware of the immediacy of the risks arising from climate change and the ever-high seasonality of the growing number of tourists. In particular, non-urban destinations show this parameter, because the closer relationship between the tourism product and local characteristics makes them weaker. At this point, we also note the quick reflexes they show in terms of changes in customer preferences, which now express a strong interest in the environmental footprint of accommodations (at a rate of about 65%).
- At a more strategic level, 84% of the sector believes that fields that have not been fully exploited (such as culture and gastronomy) can add value to Greek tourism, expanding the boundaries of activities-experiences for tourists beyond the traditional “sea and sun. ” . As an example, we mentioned that hotels in Greece are always behind in the number of overnight stays per arrival in the winter months (2.5 days compared to 3.8 in other Mediterranean countries). This area can provide some “easy wins” for tourism in Greece, since the integration close to the Mediterranean average can provide about € 0.5 billion in annual receipts.
- Moving from words to action, ⅘ of the industry proposes alternative strategies, with the aim of reducing seasonality and increasing income per arrival. While understanding that the success of the effort requires the participation of the entire tourism ecosystem, an increasing share of the sector understands the importance of infrastructure as a critical success factor in their business plans (49%, out of 30 % in 2023) .
In summary, 2024 seems to have all the guarantees to develop not only into a new milestone year for tourism in Greece, but also to be the starting point for a course of sustainable development for the sector.